Lost Equilibrium

The second debate of the day concerned the major structural geopolitcal changes in the world order that happened recently. We're currently in an "unstable global context" Adam Reichardt, who chaired the panel, quoted Zbigniew Brzeziński at the beginning of the discussion. The Ukrainian revolution, Russian intervention, annexation of the Crimea, troubles in the Middle East, eurozone crisis and eventually Ebola outbreak. A. Reichardt suugested that after systematic competition of the bipolar world of the Cold War, a new tension between integration and fragmentation arises.

The thesis wasn't accepted by Wolfgang Eichwede. "We did not lose the equilibrium because it has never existed" - he said. In terms of economy and standard of living the Eastern Bloc has never competed with the West. 

Then he refered to the the successful post-war transition of Germany. The cornerstones of the process were: recognition of the total defeat of Germany and American triumph, economic success and finally the Europeanisation of Germany. In the end of his contribution to the debate, W. Eichwede shared his views on Russia. In his opinion Putin's regime is based on repressive apparatus and isolation of the civic society within the Russian society with help of new Putinist nationalism. Nevertheless, "Putin creates his own problems". Due to the militarisation of the Russian foreign policy, he'll have to reduce the civil economic strength of the country - just like the USSR.

Then Enrique ter Horst presented a more universal and general perspective. As he said - "violations of human rights are precoursors of serious problems". According to his speech, rule of law is an essential prequsitie of the economic progress and integration. That's the point which shows Putin's weaknes. "Power isn't in the extent of the territory but in socio-economic well-being". Imperial Russia's GDP is at the level of Belgium.

Finally, Taras Voznyak presented his vision of the current geopolitical order. In his opinion it's a triangle where three stablising and revisiont powers compete. These are USA (NATO), China (supported by Iran) and the European Union. Those powers don't know their limits and interest precisely. Russia swings in the middle. After flirting with the EU, Putin works on closer ties with China.

Speaking of Putin, T. Voznyak warned against identifying Russian imperialism with Putin. In his opinion it's a more complex phenomena. "Putin is just a function" - what matters is not a single man but the power vertical based on former KGB officers.

In the end, T. Voznyak described the current geopolitical fluctuations as local - not main frontal conflicts. Global powers compete in the peripheries.